Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Is FGEN fundamentally and technically sound to buy based on their March 2020 financial report and current price?

First Gen Corporation (FGEN) was incorporated and registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission on December 22, 1998. FGEN and its subsidiaries are involved in the power generation business. FGEN is the largest clean and renewable Independent Power Producer in the Philippines, with a total installed capacity of 3,490 MW as of December 31, 2018. 


The Company owns power plants which utilize natural gas, geothermal, wind, hydro and solar power, all of which are operational and majority-owned and controlled by the Company through its subsidiaries. These subsidiaries include First Gas Power Corporation, FGP Corp., First NatGas Power Corp., Prime Meridian Powergen Corporation, FG Bukidnon Power Corporation, and Energy Development Corporation.


As of December 31, 2018, First Philippine Holdings Corporation directly and indirectly owns 66.98% of the common shares of FGEN and 100% of FGEN's voting preferred shares. Lopez, Inc. is the ultimate parent company of FGEN.


As of July 6, 2020, FGEN was last traded at 25.7php per share or 0.52USD. What valuation can we get from their March 2020 quarterly report?

Trailing P/E: 0.52/0.07= 7.4 Indicating that for every 1USD income last 2019, investors are willing to pay or is paying 7.4USD. It is said that an overvalued company would be the one trading at a rate that’s 50 times earnings, or this could be a gauge on how optimistic are investors on this company. A lower P/E may imply low in optimism perhaps due to lower expectation on future earning. 


For a growth rate of 40% (change in EPS from 2018 to 2019), the PEG ratio would be 7.4/40=0.19 meaning, investors are paying 7.4USD relative to the growth rate of 40% from 2018 to 2019. A PEG ratio of less than 1 is usually considered undervalued.



Price to Book Value per share (P/B) = 0.52/0.61= 0.8, meaning, the current market price per share is 14.7% lower compare to the real worth of the company as based on their March 2020 financial report. A P/B of less than 3 is potentially undervalued


The first 3 months net income dropped by 19.6%. 


Fundamentally, based on the parameters above, this share seems to be a good buy.



However technically, the MACD histogram seems to indicate a decline in momentum  prompting profit taking. Meanwhile, RSI also already reach the overbought level signalling a downward momentum


Disclaimer: Trade or invest at your own risk.

Friday, July 3, 2020

Is MM current market price justified fundamentally?

MerryMart Consumer Corp. (MM), formerly Injap Supermart Inc., is a consumer-focused retail company principally engaged in the operation of retail stores in the supermarket and, beginning January 30, 2020, household essentials category. MM, through its subsidiary, MerryMart Grocery Centers Inc. (MMGC) intends to pioneer the franchise business model covering supermarkets and household essentials stores in the Philippines (collectively, MM and its subsidiary, MMGC, are known as the 'MM Group').


Currently, the MM Group owns and operates seven MM branches nationwide, with an aggregate selling space of 9,331 square meters. The MM Group aims to open six more MM branches by the second quarter of 2020, six additional branches by the third quarter of 2020, and have a total of 100 branches located all over the Philippines by the fourth quarter of 2021.


MM is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Injap Investments Inc., which also owns 35% of DoubleDragon Properties Corp.


As of July 2, 2020, MM was last traded at 3.29php per share. This company was recently listed last June 15, 2020, and released their first quarter report the other day. What valuation can we get from their March 2020 quarterly report?


Trailing P/E = 3.29 / 0.03 = 109.6 Indicating that for every 1php income last 12 months, investors are willing to pay or is paying 109.6php. It is said that an overvalued company would be one trading at a rate that’s 50 times earnings, or it could be an optimism whereby investors expect earnings growth in the coming quarters and, as a result, investors have been buying the stock in anticipation of its appreciation. MM nature of business is like of that PGOLD and RRHI which are companies that are already established, the P/E’s of these companies are below 20, yet MM P/E is above 100. Having said this, I say that the expectation is a bit much, thus it’s potentially overvalued.


Price to Book Value per share (P/B) = 3.29 / 0.07 = 47, meaning, the current market price per share is 47 times higher that the real worth of the company as based on their March 2020 financial report. A P/B of more than 3 is potentially overvalued.


Even though the net income for the first 3 months this year increased by 50.5% from the last year first 3 months, still, based on the P/E comparing it with established companies, the current price seems to be not justified, not to mentioned the P/B ratio.


Disclaimer: Trade or invest at your own risk.

Is DITO fundamentally and technically sound to buy?

DITO CME Holdings Corp. (DITO), formerly ISM Communications Corporation (ISM), was originally a mining company incorporated in March 1925 under the name Itogon-Suyoc Mines, Inc. As ISM, the Company was engaged in information technology, multimedia telecommunications, and other similar industries. On March 6, 2020, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the change in corporate name to the present one. 


DITO currently has no operating business. The Company is doing business as a holding company as it was since 2016.


On December 10, 2019, the Board of DITO approved the acquisition of Udenna Communications Media and Entertainment Holdings Corp.


As of July 2, 2020, DITO was last traded at 3.44php per share. Its market price is 51.4% lower from its 52 week high. Is this fundamentally cheap and technically time to buy? 

Trailing P/E is negative because of the loss in income last 2019 and even in 2018. Investors buying stock in a company with a negative P/E should be aware that they are buying shares of an unprofitable company and be mindful of the associated risks. 



Technically, the MACD histogram is indicating a decline in momentum, thus we might see a continuation in profit taking, the same goes with RSI indicator.


Disclaimer: Trade or invest at your own risk.

Advertisement

Advertisement
Click the picture to be redirected to facebook page